But how energy is sourced varies across the world. Here Brian Gilvary explains why INEOS Energy is prioritising investments in the US and other stable markets due to high energy costs and uncertain government policies in the UK and Europe
ENERGY is INEOS’ lifeblood. It cannot survive without it – and neither can the world. INEOS uses energy to power its manufacturing plants around the world and as a raw material to make products that underpin modern society. So it is vital it invests in countries that understand its needs. America does.
INEOS Energy has just announced the acquisition of the Gulf of Mexico business held by CNOOC Energy Holdings U.S.A. Inc. This latest deal follows INEOS Energy’s decision to buy a major tranche of Chesapeake Energy’s oil and gas assets in Eagle Ford, South Texas, last year, and an agreement to buy 1.4 million tonnes a year of LNG from Sempra Infrastructure at Port Arthur in Texas in December 2022.
“That’s three deals in three years, none of which would currently be economically attractive in the UK,” said INEOS Energy chairman Brian Gilvary. Capital spend on energy assets in the USA now exceeds $3billion, and provides INEOS with a strong platform for future growth.
“America has long been an attractive market for energy investment,” said Brian. “It provides a stable fiscal regime, which is supported by successive governments that understand the importance of affordable, long-term energy security.”
That stability saw the US cease being a net importer of energy in 2011 for the first time since the 1950s due to its rapid investment in shale oil and gas.
Today, America has access to some of the cheapest energy in the world, allowing a manufacturing base that can compete around the world.
“That makes it a good place to start an energy transition because gas would be the transition fuel, replacing coal,” said Brian. “And its healthy economy could support investments in carbon capture and renewables through the Inflation Reduction Act.”
The rapidly-growing Asian economies also understand the importance of energy and energy security to their economies. China may be rapidly growing renewable sources of ‘clean’ energy, but it continues to invest heavily in new coal-fired power generation to ensure security of supply, with over 1,150 operational plants.
According to the International Energy Agency, China, India and Indonesia now account for 70% of global coal output, which grew to a record 8.9 billion tonnes last year. In China, coal now makes up 53% of its energy generation.
“The irony of using coal to fuel one of the fastest-growing electric vehicle markets in the world should not be lost on policymakers around the world as they attempt to transform their economies to net zero emissions via a predominant focus on renewables,” said Brian.
But he believes that message is being lost.
“The rapidly-growing Asian economies are focused on low-cost energy to fuel jobs and growth,” said Brian. “The European approach is to focus on ‘net zero’, seemingly at all costs.”
He warned that investment in new energy capacity was uneconomic without subsidy which could make the policy expensive and inflationary. And he said there was a limit to the pace that could be achieved.
“Germany is a case in point of how badly you can get your energy policy wrong by driving a multi-decade green agenda without understanding security of supply and baseload energy,” he said.
Germany shut down most of its nuclear power plants after the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, and began relying on coal imports again to supplement gas from Russia.
“The war in Ukraine has forced Germany to the ramp up coal which has had a major impact on CO2 emissions,” said Brian.
A recent report by the Baker Institute highlighted Germany’s ‘misguided energy policy’. It said energy was central to a country’s prosperity and the implications of Germany’s misguided energy policy had been far-reaching.
“Germany is now one of the world’s worst economic performers among major developed economies,” said Brian.
Mainland Europe and the UK today have some of the highest electricity prices in the world. But Brian believes the UK’s fortunes could change for the better if the government’s newlyformed Great British Energy followed China and America’s lead and embraced all energy on its doorstep.
“A balanced energy strategy needs to run at the same pace as the energy transition because it helps industry remain competitive, avoids increasing energy costs and provides a stable flow of tax for the exchequer,” he said.
Most industry bodies believe oil and gas will be necessary for decades to come, but investment in UK North Sea oil and gas is in decline.
“The industry has been severely undermined by an unstable fiscal regime over successive decades that has seen successive governments yo-yo on petroleum revenue tax,” said Brian.
“The most recent excursion to 78%, driven by then higher oil prices, has simply driven away future investment.”
The ‘windfall’ hike to 78% was driven by post-covid high oil prices up to $120 a barrel and huge trading profits from the international supermajors. Since then the prices have almost halved, but the windfall gains have remained, which is driving away investment from the North Sea into other opportunities around the world.
“The previous government rushed through the ‘levy’, driven by a media frenzy, creating no safety net or threshold for reducing the tax at the lower prices we have today,” he said.
Under the current regime, the government effectively now owns 78% of Britain’s offshore oil & gas assets.
“The treasury will soon see the value of those assets deteriorate as companies, left with the 22%, hold back on any significant investments to maintain their production and value,” he said.
“The bottom line is that too tight a fiscal take results in lower tax revenues over the medium to longer term. That’s a choice for the government of the day but companies will react to the signals they send.”
INEOS Energy has, however, welcomed the UK government’s decision to pledge about £22 billion for projects to capture and store carbon emissions from energy, industry and hydrogen production to help meet climate goals.
“The International Energy Agency has been clear we must eradicate emissions from fossil fuels, not eradicate fossil fuels,” said Brian. “And this investment means we will be using fossil fuels to create energy and dealing with the associated CO2 long into the future.”
But he said he hoped Great British Energy – in its drive to become net zero - would understand the importance of a reliable baseload energy.
“Wind and solar can never be baseload until we have cracked the storage of electricity conundrum, and green hydrogen, as baseload energy, is economically decades away,” he said. “Without baseload energy assured, the consequences of power cuts and strain on the grid are inevitable.
Whatever happens, INEOS Energy will continue to import LNG from America into the UK.
“All of the taxes associated with the production of the LNG will be paid in the United States,” said Brian. “And the UK treasury will discover they will not be recovering the tax they could have got if those gas molecules had been produced in the UK.”