Ensuring that Eliud Kipchoge’s marathon attempt takes place in the best possible weather conditions has been one of the most challenging parts of the whole endeavour.
AVERAGE METEOROLOGICAL DATA, VIENNA, OCTOBER
MIN. TEMP: 6.4°
MAX. TEMP: 14.3°
AVERAGE HUMIDITY: 79%
AVERAGE WIND: 9.1KM/H
PRECIPITATION: 0.33MM
TO run a fast marathon, the weather has got to be right.
Humidity, rain, wind speed and direction can all hinder performance.
But temperature is perhaps the most important.
“In long distance running events the ability of bodies to maintain or regulate heat is what ultimately determines how long athletes can last at a given intensity, along with their internal energy state and their fitness,” said Performance Team Manager Peter Vint.
The heat – especially when it is also humid – makes it harder to sweat so an athlete struggles to stay cool.
If it rains, clothing and trainers become heavier.
And anyone, who enjoys running, knows how hard it is to run when it’s windy.
Ensuring that Eliud Kipchoge’s marathon attempt takes place in the best possible weather conditions has been one of the most challenging parts of the whole endeavour.
The weather team have worked from three different forecasts, each relevant at different times.
The first was used to decide when Eliud should travel to Vienna.
The second was studied to pick the day for the event which would also determine when Eliud entered his final tapering phase.
And the final decision was to identify the precise two-hour window for optimal conditions on the day.
Robby Ketchell was the man in the hot seat — a spot he’d been in before when he worked on Eliud’s previous attempt to run a marathon in under two hours.
Robby’s first job was to find a venue that would provide — amongst other things — the best chance of getting the right weather.
The initial search stretched back 15 years and was set on a grid of 100km.
“We wrote a bespoke tool that went out and searched the weather data from stations all around the world,” he said.
Vienna was eventually chosen as the venue for the challenge because it offered the best chance of getting the right environmental conditions — along with other parameters like time zone and altitude.
But the biggest factor in its favour was that the course was tree-lined, which would help to protect Eliud from the wind.
That said, Robby’s team still wanted to discover what Eliud was likely to face in the race.
“Some of the weather stations we were using through the local Met office, are located in the hills, so we didn’t have an accurate indication of what the free flow was right above the course,” he said.
To provide that information, the team mounted reference station about three metres above the trees so the two could be compared.
They also mounted wind sensors just below the treeline and above the centre of the road – and ran tests with sensors on tripods at head height.
All of the equipment had to be built, shipped to Vienna and installed by the team.
Fortunately, Robby has not been handling all the heat on his own.
He has support from Walter Zwieflhofer, a former ECMWF Director of Operations and a meteorologist with the INEOS TEAM UK sailing team.
But it seems that — despite all the work, and even with the very best forecasting technology – the team will still need a little help from mother nature for the stars to fully align on the day.